After a brief period of relative calm and respite for the Government, things have turned precarious again.  The announcement by Labour last week that it will not be supporting the Government’s flagship ‘Withdrawal from the European Union’ Bill at Second Reading in the Commons raises the very real prospect of defeat for the Government and, quite possibly, another General Election in a matter of months rather than years.

It is, of course, highly unwise to engage in political prediction-making in the current atmosphere.  Nevertheless, there has to be a question as to whether the Government will get the Bill through; and almost no question that the Bill will be subject to very significant amendment by the Opposition. If this is the case, given that the Bill is the Government’s flagship legislative measure, it follows that the Government would be very close to having lost the confidence of the House of Commons.

Quite what the electorate would make of another election is anyone’s guess.  Rest assured, the media will make a beeline for Bristol to hear Brenda’s reaction (she of “Not another one!” fame).

If the Government did fall, so would four pieces of legislation relevant to our sector.  These might eventually reappear in some shape or from, but there would be no guarantee.

Chief among these bills is the Financial Guidance and Claims Management Bill, which has already had its Second Reading in the Lords.  The focus is very much the claims management part, although peers are already lining up to insert the ‘Breathing Space’ commitment outlined in both the Conservative and Labour election manifestos. The Government’s proposal was that struggling debtors should have 6 weeks respite from fees and charges; Opposition Lords will seek to extend the period to a year.

There will be more scope for mischief making by the Opposition when (if) the Bill reaches the Commons.  But the Labour leadership has credit-related problems of its own.

On the Andrew Marr show at the weekend, Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell pointedly refused to stand by Labour’s commitment to write off students’ existing debt if Labour were to win power. He described it as “an ambition, not a promise”, despite Jeremy Corbyn having made the promise to students days before the election.  The clip has ‘gone viral’ on social media in much the same as anti-Tory memes did during the campaign. Student debt could present the Opposition with a stumbling block of its own.

In other important news, the new chair of the influential Treasury Select Committee is Nicky Morgan MP, who defeated arch-Brexiteer Jacob Rees Mogg MP thanks to backing from Remain-supporting Labour MPs.  She is the first female MP to hold the post.  In comments after the result was announced, Morgan said she wanted to focus on a “wider Treasury remit” including “household debt and tax policy”, rather than limiting the committee to the financial services sector and Brexit.  “These are all the things that actually our constituents put us in the House of Commons for”, she added, “the things that make a difference to household budgets and to their economic security.”

So it promises to be a busy time on the Treasury Committee front too.