THE FINAL COUNTDOWN
WHAT DO THE NEXT TWELVE MONTHS HAVE IN STORE FOR UK POLITICS?

CCTA

Everyone knows the saying “a week is a long time in politics” so a year could be considered an eternity. However, I did want to talk about the next twelve months as we head towards the general election and a possible change in government. I think it’s fair to say that the last few years have shown anything is possible in UK politics. Things seem to be very fast moving now, even between starting and finishing this article another government reshuffle took place!

SO WHERE ARE WE NOW?

Sunak has been in post as Prime Minister for just over a year now. It seems that the strategy was to distance himself from both the “Covid” years under Johnson and the economic disasters under Truss. The Prime Minister has focused in on six key pledges- such as bringing down inflation and reducing NHS waiting lists. Some may be in his gift, but he is running out of time to deliver on others.

The focus has been about steadying the ship, appealing to the more centrist Conservative voters and demonstrating that they can continue to be the natural party of government, despite their recent setbacks.

The reshuffle also shows a move back towards centre ground with the return of David Cameron and promotion for some of his previous Special Advisors. It also means that we have a new Economic Secretary, the Minister responsible for financial services regulation, in Bim Afolami MP.

IS AN ELECTION LIKELY?

The Government must call the next general election by the 28th January 2025. Official notice must be given and the Prime Minister is likely to want to avoid the Christmas season, so best guess is that it is likely to take place next autumn, unless his hand is forced into calling it sooner. If I were Sunak, I would be waiting till as late as possible to give myself more time to demonstrate a record of action. Expect opposition parties to keep pushing the rhetoric of time being up on the Conservatives in government and calling for an early election at every opportunity.

Sunak will also need to keep a close eye on the right of his party, likely to be disgruntled by the recent sacking of Suella Braverman and new Ministerial appointees. He needs to hold the party together.

WHAT’S HAPPENING WITH LABOUR?

It is widely reported that Labour are now around 20 points ahead of the Tories in the election polls. It is looking ever more likely that they will form the next government, which can be a double-edged sword for current leader Keir Starmer.

There is a view that all Starmer needs to do is make it to the next election and the job of Prime Minister will be his. He is riding high from a successful party conference, where attendance was up. In fact, the corporate events sold out well in advance, indicating where the business community are focusing their lobbying activity. This is a stark difference to the Tories that had to downsize their conference hall mid-event to avoid it looking empty.

Starmer must try to swerve any political potholes in the coming months, but also needs to focus on the development of the party’s manifesto. After so long in opposition Labour need to demonstrate that they have real credible policies and are ready to hit the ground running if they get the keys to Number 10.

We have seen the first steps into policy within financial services regulation. The shadow City Minister has already called on the Government to bring forward legislation to regulate the buy-now pay-later sector so that is something we can expect to see in the Labour manifesto.

From a CCTA perspective, we will continue to talk to the Government via the Ministers and officials within HM Treasury, that we meet with on a regular basis. We will also be engaging with the Labour shadow Treasury team to discuss the alternative lending sector and its importance, ahead of them forming a potential government.

The shadow City Minister has already called on the government to bring forward legislation to regulate the buy-now pay-later sector so that is something we can expect to see in the Labour manifesto.

WHAT’S NEXT?

I think we can expect both parties to furiously try and demonstrate why they deserve to win the next election. For Labour, they must show that they can govern after years in the wilderness.

For the Conservatives it is about trying to claw back credibility and hoping that the coming months allow people to forget some of the recent goings on.

But if the last few years have shown us anything, I’m not sure anyone can truly predict what the next twelve months may bring.